September 23, 2022 Remember last year’s blogpost where we asked whether the Fed was really serious about tackling inflation? Well, since then Chairman Powell has been taking pains to demonstrate that yes, he is serious. Very serious. So, let’s talk another look at the question. Chair Powell has certainly been talking the talk, saying inContinue reading “Quo Vadis?”
The last time I had a chance to blog, I was pointing out that it’s just wrong to blame US inflation on a collapse in supply. Why then are there still shortages of so many goods?
One day, you are sitting at home, relaxing after another ordinary day. Everything seems so familiar, so comfortable. The couch, kitchen table, bed. They’ve all been around for so long that it’s difficult to imagine what life was like before they were there. It’s all so….reassuring. But the next day you wake up, and suddenlyContinue reading “How did we get here?”
We’ve all been there. We’re relaxing at home, just having a quiet night, when suddenly we hear a loud thump. So we turn to the person next to us and ask, “What’s that sound?” We try to sound confident-but-inquisitive, but the question doesn’t come out that way. Our voice is a bit shaky, revealing thatContinue reading “What’s that Sound?”
Last year, Team Transitory was completely wrong about inflation. But does that mean they’ll be wrong again in 2022? Leslie Lipschitz and I evaluate the outlook in our latest column for Barron’s.
US inflation is expected to touch 7 percent when the December numbers are released on Wednesday. And it could easily reach 8 percent by February. How scary is that?
Chairman Powell has banished the t-word from his lexicon and announced moves to tighten the monetary stance. This press are calling this the “Powell Pivot”. But is it a real move… or just a head fake?
Everybody likes a good summer mystery. So consider the real-life case of the returning inflation. For more than two decades, inflation had vanished from the US economic scene. But suddenly this summer it has returned. And everyone wants to know why.
Have you ever taken a train that’s heading in the wrong direction? If you have, you know what unfolds. First comes the confusion, the strange feeling that something is wrong, even if you can’t quite put a finger on it. Then comes the gradual realization that uh-oh, you’ve made a dreadful mistake. You’ve wound upContinue reading “Are We Headed to Zimbabwe?”
Last week, the US reported that growth reached 6.5 percent in the June quarter (seasonally adjusted, annual rate), following the 6.3 percent rate recorded in the previous quarter. These are exceptionally strong numbers. Sure, they follow a recession. But the economy doesn’t always roar back after a setback, the way it is doing now. WhenContinue reading “The Strange US GDP Report”