joshfelman1

Deja vu, all over again?

It’s decision time today, and the Fed is between a rock and a hard place. Raise rates, cause more mark-to-market losses, and intensify the banking problems. Halt the rate increases and lose the fight against inflation. What should it do?

Who dunnit, update

March 19, 2023 Yesterday’s post argued that the Fed must have known about SVB’s problems — and yet didn’t force the bank to de-risk. Today the New York Times finally focused on this issue. The key points of the NYT article can be summarised briefly: Then comes the absolutely critical point. The Fed has mountedContinue reading “Who dunnit, update”

Who dunnit?

Who killed Silicon Valley Bank? It’s “frenemies” who rushed to take all their money out, even as they told the world how much they loved the bank? Its own management? The Congressmen who lifted regulations meant to keep the bank safe? In fact, there were other deep forces at work. Very deep forces..

The R-Word

The Fed is trying to engineer a soft landing, defeating inflation without driving the economy into recession. But it is facing just a few problems. What is the chance that the Fed will succeed?

Quo Vadis?

September 23, 2022 Remember last year’s blogpost where we asked whether the Fed was really serious about tackling inflation? Well, since then Chairman Powell has been taking pains to demonstrate that yes, he is serious. Very serious. So, let’s talk another look at the question. Chair Powell has certainly been talking the talk, saying inContinue reading “Quo Vadis?”

How Did We Get Here? Part II

The last time I had a chance to blog, I was pointing out that it’s just wrong to blame US inflation on a collapse in supply. Why then are there still shortages of so many goods?

How did we get here?

One day, you are sitting at home, relaxing after another ordinary day. Everything seems so familiar, so comfortable. The couch, kitchen table, bed. They’ve all been around for so long that it’s difficult to imagine what life was like before they were there. It’s all so….reassuring. But the next day you wake up, and suddenlyContinue reading “How did we get here?”

What’s that Sound?

We’ve all been there. We’re relaxing at home, just having a quiet night, when suddenly we hear a loud thump. So we turn to the person next to us and ask, “What’s that sound?” We try to sound confident-but-inquisitive, but the question doesn’t come out that way. Our voice is a bit shaky, revealing thatContinue reading “What’s that Sound?”

The Worst Person in the World

Why make a movie about an unsympathetic character — the worst person in the world? Perhaps because all of us suffer from the same dilemma that she is facing.

Will Inflation Subside?

Last year, Team Transitory was completely wrong about inflation. But does that mean they’ll be wrong again in 2022? Leslie Lipschitz and I evaluate the outlook in our latest column for Barron’s.