U.S. Blog

The R-Word

The Fed is trying to engineer a soft landing, defeating inflation without driving the economy into recession. But it is facing just a few problems. What is the chance that the Fed will succeed?

Quo Vadis?

September 23, 2022 Remember last year’s blogpost where we asked whether the Fed was really serious about tackling inflation? Well, since then Chairman Powell has been taking pains to demonstrate that yes, he is serious. Very serious. So, let’s talk another look at the question. Chair Powell has certainly been talking the talk, saying inContinue reading “Quo Vadis?”

How Did We Get Here? Part II

The last time I had a chance to blog, I was pointing out that it’s just wrong to blame US inflation on a collapse in supply. Why then are there still shortages of so many goods?

How did we get here?

One day, you are sitting at home, relaxing after another ordinary day. Everything seems so familiar, so comfortable. The couch, kitchen table, bed. They’ve all been around for so long that it’s difficult to imagine what life was like before they were there. It’s all so….reassuring. But the next day you wake up, and suddenlyContinue reading “How did we get here?”

What’s that Sound?

We’ve all been there. We’re relaxing at home, just having a quiet night, when suddenly we hear a loud thump. So we turn to the person next to us and ask, “What’s that sound?” We try to sound confident-but-inquisitive, but the question doesn’t come out that way. Our voice is a bit shaky, revealing thatContinue reading “What’s that Sound?”

The Worst Person in the World

Why make a movie about an unsympathetic character — the worst person in the world? Perhaps because all of us suffer from the same dilemma that she is facing.

Will Inflation Subside?

Last year, Team Transitory was completely wrong about inflation. But does that mean they’ll be wrong again in 2022? Leslie Lipschitz and I evaluate the outlook in our latest column for Barron’s.

Inflation: All About That Base

US inflation is expected to touch 7 percent when the December numbers are released on Wednesday. And it could easily reach 8 percent by February. How scary is that?

The Powell Pivot: Big Move…or Head Fake?

Chairman Powell has banished the t-word from his lexicon and announced moves to tighten the monetary stance. This press are calling this the “Powell Pivot”. But is it a real move… or just a head fake?

The Mystery of Returning Inflation

Everybody likes a good summer mystery. So consider the real-life case of the returning inflation. For more than two decades, inflation had vanished from the US economic scene. But suddenly this summer it has returned. And everyone wants to know why.


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