Chairman Powell has banished the t-word from his lexicon and announced moves to tighten the monetary stance. This press are calling this the “Powell Pivot”. But is it a real move… or just a head fake?
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The Mystery of Returning Inflation
Everybody likes a good summer mystery. So consider the real-life case of the returning inflation. For more than two decades, inflation had vanished from the US economic scene. But suddenly this summer it has returned. And everyone wants to know why.
Are We Headed to Zimbabwe?
Have you ever taken a train that’s heading in the wrong direction? If you have, you know what unfolds. First comes the confusion, the strange feeling that something is wrong, even if you can’t quite put a finger on it. Then comes the gradual realization that uh-oh, you’ve made a dreadful mistake. You’ve wound upContinue reading “Are We Headed to Zimbabwe?”
The Strange US GDP Report
Last week, the US reported that growth reached 6.5 percent in the June quarter (seasonally adjusted, annual rate), following the 6.3 percent rate recorded in the previous quarter. These are exceptionally strong numbers. Sure, they follow a recession. But the economy doesn’t always roar back after a setback, the way it is doing now. WhenContinue reading “The Strange US GDP Report”
India’s Great Slowdown: What Happened? What’s the Way Out?
Abstract: We examine the pattern of growth in the 2010s. Standard explanations cannot account for the long slowdown, followed by a sharp collapse. Our explanation stresses both structural and cyclical factors, with finance as the distinctive, common element. In the immediate aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), two key drivers of growth decelerated. ExportContinue reading “India’s Great Slowdown: What Happened? What’s the Way Out?”
Marginal Economist 